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A volatile morning features a likely Fed rate cut, renewed violence testing Gaza’s ceasefire, and confirmation that Trump and Xi will meet in South Korea.

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Israeli strikes killed dozens overnight as officials said the truce with Hamas was “back in effect” hours later, even as hospitals tallied rising deaths and families searched rubble.

Israeli leaders framed the bombardment as retaliation tied to alleged ceasefire breaches.

Officials reaffirmed the truce while vowing a firm response to further violations.

The ceasefire, announced earlier this month, paused most fighting and set terms for phased exchanges of hostages and remains.

Mediators have struggled to resolve disputes over compliance and timelines amid sporadic flare-ups and humanitarian strain.

Why it matters: The latest surge in casualties underscores how fragile the deal remains and how quickly escalation could upend relief deliveries and regional diplomacy just as winter approaches.

The Federal Reserve is poised to trim its benchmark rate by a quarter point today, with policymakers navigating a patchy read on growth and jobs due to a government data blackout during the shutdown.

Surveys point to broad market expectations for a move to the 3.75%–4.00% range.

Analysts say the Fed is “in a fog” and watching labor signals closely.

A month of shuttered agencies has delayed key releases that typically inform the Fed’s outlook, complicating guidance on what comes next.

Markets also look for hints on the pace of balance-sheet policy alongside the statement and chair’s remarks.

Why it matters: With stocks near records and inflation easing unevenly, the path the Fed sketches for late-2025 could steer borrowing costs, hiring, and risk appetite into year-end.

Beijing confirmed that Xi Jinping will meet Donald Trump in Busan on Thursday for “in-depth” talks, a potential opening to cool a bruising trade standoff.

The announcement followed Trump’s upbeat remarks en route to Asia about striking a “good deal.”

China’s confirmation eased some market nerves after months of tit-for-tat tariffs and tech restrictions.

As both sides signal interest in stabilizing ties, even modest steps—like commodity purchases and licensing relief—could reset expectations before year-end.

Why it matters: Any thaw could ripple across supply chains and capital flows, especially in semiconductors, agriculture, and autos that have borne costs from the trade war.

The Senate passed a resolution 52–48 to terminate Trump’s emergency declaration underpinning 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, a rare bipartisan pushback on trade policy; the measure faces long odds in the House and a likely veto.

Lawmakers framed the vote as a check on executive tariff powers as the Brazil action advanced.

Polish fighters intercepted a Russian aircraft flying without a plan and with its transponder off over the Baltic, heightening tensions along NATO’s eastern flank.

The army said the jet was on a reconnaissance mission in international airspace as the intercept was disclosed.

Ukraine rushed reinforcements as block-by-block fighting spread in the strategic eastern city of Pokrovsk, where Russian forces pressed assaults along multiple axes.

Military officials described a fluid frontline as troops were shifted.

An “extremely dangerous” Melissa crossed eastern Cuba early today after battering Jamaica, with the National Hurricane Center warning of life-threatening surge and floods as the latest advisory moved.

Emergency crews in both countries face damaged roads, downed power, and landslides.

A federal judge extended an order preventing agencies from carrying out mass layoffs while the partial shutdown drags on, preserving paychecks for thousands as litigation proceeds.

The ruling came as the case advanced.

A Senate bid to make daylight saving time permanent faltered after objections to fast-track the measure, keeping clock changes in place for now as the effort hit a dead end.

Equities are steady after fresh highs, with investors bracing for today’s policy decision and a wave of megacap earnings.

Breadth remains narrow as AI-linked names lead, while futures were mixed in early trade as markets steadied.

Trump renewed criticism of Chair Jerome Powell for not easing faster, injecting politics into a sensitive decision window as fresh attacks landed.

Ahead of earnings, Amazon is considering as many as 30,000 corporate job reductions to streamline operations, according to an exclusive report as plans were detailed.

NASA’s X-59 “quiet” supersonic demonstrator completed its inaugural flight, a step toward reviving faster-than-sound travel over land with reduced sonic booms as test footage emerged.

With schedule pressure mounting, NASA moved to seek rival bids for the Artemis III lunar landing as it reevaluates timelines tied to Starship, opening the door to more providers as the program shift was outlined.

Security vendor F5 warned that a breach affecting governments will weigh on sales, sending shares lower and prompting renewed scrutiny of edge-network defenses as guidance was cut.

Toronto answered an 18-inning epic by beating the Dodgers 6–2 to even the Fall Classic, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homering off Shohei Ohtani as Game 4 swung. The series now shifts to Canada for a pivotal finish.

Toronto’s comeback set up a marquee Game 5 pitching duel after bullpen heroics stabilized the series as the matchup reset.

Overtime and blowouts dotted the slate as contenders flexed; Tyrese Maxey’s 39 led Philadelphia in OT while Miami cruised behind balanced scoring as the scoreboard rolled.

“Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc” claimed No. 1 in North America with an estimated $17 million, underscoring anime’s theatrical momentum as the weekend crown shifted.

Disney will lift U.S. Disney+ rates on Oct. 21, with ad-tier and premium plans both increasing as the company pushes streaming toward durable profits; bundles also rise as the hikes take effect.

U.S. consumers are on track to spend a record $13.1 billion on Halloween, with candy alone near $3.9 billion, even as tariffs and cocoa costs bite, according to the NRF’s survey.

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Picture this: molten mozzarella weaving through tender morsels of Wagyu-inspired brisket, a drizzle of balsamic reduction for that tangy tango, all arriving piping hot at your door in under 30 minutes, wrapped in eco-chic packaging that whispers sustainability.

Grass One isn't just pizza; it's a rebellion against the ordinary, a nomadic nomad's dream on a disc, transforming mundane evenings into epicurean escapades.

Order now and let the glories unfold, one glorious slice at a time.

Get 50% off your first order here.

Today’s expected rate cut comes with an unusual handicap: a month-long federal shutdown has throttled the flow of the very indicators the Fed relies on most.

Policymakers typically triangulate payroll growth, unemployment claims, inflation gauges, and spending data to calibrate policy.

With key releases delayed or incomplete, officials have leaned harder on private surveys, high-frequency series, and anecdotal reports—an approach the Fed itself characterizes as operating “in a fog.”

That opacity raises the risk of misreading turning points just as markets price a soft landing.

Officials have signaled caution, but they must still choose between cushioning growth or preserving hard-won credibility on inflation.

Markets, meanwhile, are near record highs after a powerful AI-led run, and financial conditions have eased ahead of today’s decision.

A quarter-point cut would lower borrowing costs for mortgages, autos, and corporate debt at the margins, but the statement and chair’s guidance will do more to shape expectations.

Traders are split on whether another cut lands in December; the Fed’s words about the labor market and balance-sheet plans could tip that debate. Futures and global bourses steadied as investors await clarity.

Politics is the wild card. Trump’s public pressure on Chair Jerome Powell to accelerate cuts injects headline risk that the Fed will try to sidestep, reaffirming independence even as it responds to slowing growth.

Fresh criticism landed hours before the decision. Abroad, central banks are also weighing softer inflation and uneven growth, adding currency dynamics to the mix.

What to watch: language on the job market; any hint of further cuts this year; discussion of pace and endpoint for balance-sheet runoff; and how markets react if the Fed leans less dovish than priced.

With data catching up post-shutdown, revisions could reshape the story into November—making clear, forward guidance and flexibility the Fed’s most valuable tools for now. less Copy code

• A Senate push to end twice-yearly clock changes fizzled, so mark your calendars for a fall time switch as the effort stalled.

• Poland’s intercept over the Baltic highlights rising air-policing missions on NATO’s flank as air forces respond.

• NASA’s X-59 debut brings back the dream of quiet supersonic travel as flight testing begins.

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—The Five Minute Daily Team