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After a record U.S. shutdown ends, the data it froze may never fully arrive, leaving policymakers to steer with partial information. At the same time, fragile ceasefires in Gaza and a grinding war in Ukraine keep conflict at the center of global risk.

Amid the uncertainty, one structural shift stands out: clean energy is quietly passing coal in the world’s power mix. Here’s how those threads fit together this week.

After 43 days, the U.S. government reopened when Congress passed a stopgap funding deal that keeps agencies running only into early 2026. The lapse halted $50 billion in planned spending and furloughed hundreds of thousands of workers.

Even with offices back online, officials now say October jobs and inflation reports will likely never be published, extending a data blackout just as the economy slows. That missing information will shape everything from interest-rate debates to corporate planning for months.

More than a month into a fragile Gaza ceasefire, violence has dropped from wartime levels, but strikes and raids still occur regularly inside the enclave’s “yellow line,” leaving only a handful of truly quiet days, according to a running ceasefire tally. Civilians remain under heavy military control as negotiations over next steps stall.

The first strong winter storms flooded crowded tent camps and makeshift shelters in the Muwasi zone, with families wading through mud and rain-soaked belongings despite limited winter supplies. The combination of shaky security, slow reconstruction, and worsening weather is turning the “post-war” phase into its own prolonged emergency.

On the 1,361st day of the war, Ukraine reported hundreds of daily combat engagements and new Russian pushes near key Donetsk front lines, even as Kyiv claimed strikes on assets deep inside Russia, including a refinery near Moscow. The battlefield remains fluid but tilted toward gradual Russian gains.

At the same time, analysts point to “positive developments” in Ukraine’s growing ability to hit military and energy targets far behind the front, including attacks that have cut Russian refinery capacity by double-digit percentages in some estimates, according to a detailed war assessment. Together, the trends suggest a long war of attrition rather than near-term breakthrough.

A new electricity review found that wind, solar, and other clean sources generated more power worldwide than coal for the first time in the first half of 2025, driven by rapid deployment in large economies and cheaper renewable output. Coal’s share fell even as overall electricity demand grew.

The underlying data from an international energy electricity study show solar alone providing most of the new growth, with wind close behind. The shift matters for climate goals: coal emits roughly twice as much carbon dioxide as gas per unit of power, so structural moves away from it can lock in lower emissions.

Global markets swung through a volatile week as investors weighed end-of-shutdown relief against stubborn inflation and patchy data. A “Take Five” outlook flagged a backlog of delayed U.S. indicators, new eurozone inflation prints, and upcoming mega-cap earnings as the key drivers for stocks and bonds.

In the U.S., a big-tech rebound led by AI names helped the S&P 500 nearly erase last week’s slide, with one recap noting how rallies in chip and software leaders offset weakness in healthcare and defensive names in a choppy market session. At the same time, a senior Federal Reserve official used a high-profile inflation speech to warn that price pressures remain the “clearer and more urgent” risk, keeping rate-cut expectations uncertain.

Economists are urging the Labor Department to prioritize November jobs and inflation reports so policymakers have fresh numbers for the December meeting, highlighting the importance of timing after the shutdown. Those releases will be among the first clean snapshots of the economy since the data freeze.

Central-bank watchers say officials are split between cutting rates to support hiring and holding firm to tame inflation, with one recent policy explainer underscoring just how divided views are heading into the final decision of the year.

Skittish investors who rotated out of expensive growth stocks during the shutdown are now looking to Nvidia’s upcoming results for next cues on AI demand, data-center spending, and broader tech valuations. The report is expected to be one of the most closely watched corporate events of the quarter.

One major shareholder recently trimmed its stake in the chipmaker ahead of earnings, a move that added to near-term volatility but did little to dent long-term optimism around AI infrastructure. How markets interpret the results could shape sentiment across the entire sector.

As the ceasefire strains, diplomats are working on a Gaza stabilization plan that would come before the U.N. Security Council, with one in-depth peace-plan brief outlining proposals for an international force, reconstruction board, and monitoring mechanisms. The timing and strength of any resolution will influence both funding and security arrangements.

At the same time, reporting on internal U.S.–Israeli talks points to debates over whether to insist on full Hamas disarmament before large-scale rebuilding, with a detailed negotiation snapshot suggesting Washington may consider more flexible sequencing to get reconstruction moving.

This week’s stories point to a world in slow but significant transition. The end of the U.S. shutdown did not restore normality; instead, it left a hole in official data that complicates central-bank decisions and market pricing.

In Gaza and Ukraine, the shift is from high-intensity combat to grinding, weather-exposed endurance, where infrastructure and humanitarian resilience are as important as front lines.

Meanwhile, clean energy quietly crossing ahead of coal shows that long-run structural change continues even amid short-term turmoil.

Taken together, the picture is one of overlapping “halfway” states—half-known data, half-frozen conflicts, and half-finished transitions—where decisions made over the next few weeks and months will set baselines that last well into the decade.

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—The Five Minute Daily Team